Pope Francis: A Legacy of Reform
Pope Francis, the first Jesuit and Latin American pontiff, passed away on April 21, 2025, at the age of 88. His death marks the end of a 12-year papacy characterized by advocacy for simplicity, social justice, and interfaith dialogue. As the Catholic Church mourns his loss, attention turns to the future and the question on everyone's mind: Who will be the next Pope?
This website provides analysis of the papal succession process, profiles of the leading candidates, and predictions about who is most likely to emerge as the next leader of the world's 1.4 billion Catholics.
The Papal Conclave: How a Pope is Elected
Cardinals Gather
The 138 eligible cardinal electors (those under age 80) will gather in Rome within 15-20 days of Pope Francis's death.
Conclave Begins
Cardinals are sequestered in the Sistine Chapel, where they will remain until a new Pope is elected.
Secret Ballots
Voting takes place by secret ballot, with up to four rounds per day. A two-thirds majority (92 votes) is required for election.
White Smoke
When a Pope is elected, white smoke rises from the Sistine Chapel chimney, signaling to the world that a new pontiff has been chosen.
Habemus Papam
The senior cardinal announces "Habemus Papam" ("We have a Pope") and introduces the new pontiff by his chosen papal name.
Leading Candidates
The next Pope will be chosen from among the College of Cardinals. Here are the leading candidates who could succeed Pope Francis:
Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle
Prefect of the Dicastery for Evangelization
Philippines
Age: 67
Betting Odds: 3:1
Progressive
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Cardinal Pietro Parolin
Vatican Secretary of State
Italy
Age: 70
Betting Odds: 4:1
Moderate
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Cardinal Matteo Zuppi
Archbishop of Bologna
Italy
Age: 69
Betting Odds: 8:1
Progressive
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Cardinal Peter Turkson
Former Prefect, Dicastery for Promoting Integral Human Development
Ghana
Age: 76
Betting Odds: 5:1
Moderate-Progressive
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Cardinal Peter Erdő
Archbishop of Budapest
Hungary
Age: 72
Betting Odds: 7:1
Conservative
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Cardinal Robert Sarah
Former Prefect, Congregation for Divine Worship
Guinea
Age: 79
Betting Odds: 10:1
Conservative
View ProfileOur Prediction
Based on our analysis of the current Church climate, voting dynamics, and candidate profiles, Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle emerges as the most likely successor to Pope Francis with a 40% probability.
The most significant factor influencing this prediction is that Pope Francis appointed approximately 80% of the current cardinal electors, suggesting a strong likelihood of continuity with his progressive vision.
However, papal elections are notoriously unpredictable. The Italian proverb "He who enters the conclave as pope leaves as a cardinal" highlights this unpredictability.
Read Full AnalysisKey Factors Influencing the Selection
Geographical Representation
With Catholicism growing rapidly in the Global South (Africa, Asia, and Latin America), there is increasing pressure to select a non-European Pope who can represent the changing demographics of the Church.
Theological Direction
The conclave will need to decide whether to continue Francis's more progressive approach or pivot back toward theological conservatism. This fundamental question may be the most significant factor in determining the next Pope.
Francis's Appointments
Pope Francis appointed approximately 80% of the current cardinal electors, significantly shaping the composition of the College of Cardinals. This suggests a higher likelihood of selecting a candidate who will continue his progressive vision.
Handling of Abuse Cases
The Church's response to sexual abuse scandals remains a critical issue. Cardinals will likely prioritize a candidate with a strong record on transparency and accountability in addressing these cases.